In this conference, Max Manwaring explains the seven critical governing rules for success in contemporary conflict. He illustrates each of the seven rules using historical examples from countries whose governments and populations have been targeted by terrorist organizations. The Italian government’s successful response to the violent Red Brigades campaign during the late 1970s, which put these seven governing rules into effect, is analyzed in detail. He also describes the roles assumed by the Italian military and the Carabinieri during this period. Finally, Manwaring answers student questions regarding recent reductions in the size of the armed forces seen in some countries. He analyzes how the population’s sense of security is affected by these reductions as well as the accompanying need to modernize other security forces.
Max G. Manwaring
Max G. Manwaring is a research professor of military strategy at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the U.S. Army War College (USAWC). He is a retired U.S. Army colonel and he held the General Douglas MacArthur Chair of Research at the USAWC. He served in the U.S. Southern Command and the Defense Intelligence Agency. He also held positions at Dickinson College and Memphis University. Dr. Manwaring has authored and coauthored several books and articles on Latin American security issues, political-military affairs, and insurgency. His most recent book is Insurgency, Terrorism, and Crime: Shadows from the Past and Portents for the Future. Dr. Manwaring holds a PhD in political science from University of Illinois and is a graduate of the U.S. Army War College.
Seminar: Unconventional Conflicts Precipitated by Non-State Actors (Day 2, Part II) Max Manwaring
Academic Building, A-406 Universidad Francisco Marroquín Guatemala, June 25, 2009
A New Media - UFM production. Guatemala, July 2009. Camera: Mario Estrada, Joni Vasquez; digital editing: Mynor de León; index: Sergio Bustamante; content revisers: Daphne Ortiz, Jennifer Keller; publication: Mario Pivaral / Carlos Petz
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons 3.0 License Este trabajo ha sido registrado con una licencia Creative Commons 3.0
Slides
Content
Initial credits
Seven governing rules for success in contemporary conflict
Empirical methodology
Niccolò Machiavelli
Virtù and prudenza
Governing rules
Legitimacy
Moral right to govern
Active consent of the governed
Reaffirmation of the population's will
Italian example
Aldo Moro
No dirty war
Update criminal code
Unity of effort
Temporary counterterrorism task force
Carabinieri General Carlo Alberto Dalla Chiesa
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
Information
Creation of a new public opinion
Salvadoran example
Italian example
Media cooperation
Public diplomacy campaign
Manipulating the arrogance of the Red Brigades
Intelligence
Human intelligence (HUMINT)
Central intelligence organization
Partito Comunista Italiano (PCI) cooperation
Illusionary legitimacy
Isolation
Stop monetary support
Main supporters of the Red Brigades
France
Actions of intervening powers
NATO did not intervene
Vietnam and El Salvador examples
Indigenous military capabilities
Arma dei Carabinieri
Soft power
No alienation of the population
No threat of a military takeover
Primary implications
Victory never achieved as a result of military actions alone
No dirty war
Regime legitimacy
Populace-oriented model
Defensive and offensive actions
Question and answer period
What happens when the government suffers a separation of its institutions?
Can you comment on the oil and piracy problem in Somalia?
Control of the area
Perception
What happens with countries, like Costa Rica, that do not have an army to defend their population?
Reducing the size of the armed forces
Modernization of other security forces
Costa Rica's civil police
What about people's sense of security when the military is suppressed?
Interests abroad
Ineffective suppression of the army
Military dictatorships in Latin America
What kind of training did the Italian counterterrorism task force have?
Arma dei Carabinieri
Paramilitary training
Chilean Carabinieri
Suppressing the police
Mexican army
What is your opinion of Samuel P. Huntington's theory of military coups?
Final words
Final credits
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Universidad Francisco Marroquín
6 Calle final, zona 10
Edificio de la Escuela de Negocios
Oficina EN-103
Guatemala, Guatemala 01010
Teléfono (+502) 2338-7700 ext. 7849
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